|
Glenn Burns Weather
Recalling the rains of September
2004
 September
2004 has gone down as Georgia’s wettest September on record. The
statewide average was 12.14 inches, which is 8.12 inches more than
the 1895-2004 average. Records were set at several cities, including
Macon, Columbus, and Athens ... and it was the second wettest
September on record in Atlanta. The new record rainfall for
September in Macon is 12.66 inches which surpasses the old record of
12.30 inches set in 1924. In Columbus ... the new record is 9.47
inches ... which beats the old record of 6.94 inches set in 1951. In
Athens ... the new record is 11.84 inches ... breaking the old
record of 10.30 inches set in 1989. The total for Atlanta for
September is 13.65 inches making it the second wettest September.
The wettest September in Atlanta is 14.26 inches set in 1888. Most
of the rain fell from the remnants of three hurricanes that moved
over Georgia after making landfall in Florida and Alabama. The
remnants of Frances moved over Georgia on September 6 and 7 ... Ivan
on the September 16 and 17 ... and the latest ... Jeanne on
September 27.
Now with El Nino cranking up in the equatorial waters
in the central Pacific Ocean, hurricane forecasters are looking for
a minimal season. However, new research being conducted at Georgia
Tech says that may not be the case. “Normally, El Niño results in
diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is
resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency
and more potential to make landfall,” said Peter Webster, professor
at Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.
That’s because this new type of El Niño, known as El
Niño Modoki (from the Japanese meaning “similar, but different”),
forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the
typical El Niño event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is
associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for
making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central
America.
Even though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm
water known as El Niño forms in the Pacific, it affects the
circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of
hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Niño (from the
Spanish meaning “little boy” or “Christ child”) is more difficult to
forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not
coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of
time. However, the summer before El Niño occurs, the storm patterns
change, meaning that predictions of El Niño come only one month
before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Niño Modoki
follows a different prediction pattern.
“This new type of El Niño is more predictable,” said
Webster. “We’re not sure why, but this could mean that we get
greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months.”
It will be interesting to see the results at the end
of this season. But that is not until the end of November. The
middle of this month is when we usually see the peak of the
hurricane season. So, will we see more rain like we had in 2004? It
is certainly possible.
Dr. Robert Gray, the leading hurricane predictor from
Colorado State says we are likely to see two hurricanes strike the
U.S. A little nudge west by the Bermuda High could bring them into
the Southeast.
That’s it for this month. A look at the upcoming
Harvest Moon is coming your way in October. Enjoy the coming of fall
this month. The Autumnal Equinox is September 22 at 5:18 pm.
Glenn Burns is chief meteorologist for WSB-TV in Atlanta.
glenn@lakesidenews.com
|
