Today's lake level: 1072.16
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Jun. 24, 2018
2:14 pm


Glenn Burns weather

Being thankful for a quiet spring 

I was not sure what to expect this severe weather season across north Georgia. As it turned out, we had one of the quietest in recent memory with one tornado day in north Georgia. As we approached late April into May, when the majority of the country’s severe storms are likely across the nation’s heartland, again, there was nothing much to see. Tornado season across the plains was very quiet compared to what we have seen over the past several years. I think we can attribute that to all the cold stable air that covered much of the country through much of April and May. From 1991 through 2015, the average number of tornadoes for Georgia each year is 29.  We had eight statewide. You will get no complaints from me. From here on out, we deal with pop-up afternoon thunderstorms with an occasional squall line.
Late last April through the first couple of weeks of May, the weather, as you know, was gorgeous. We had lots of sunshine, little rain, and pleasant temperatures, except for a few 90 degree days in early May. Then when the school year was winding down and the kids were scheduled for outdoor activities and field days, a huge surge of tropical air poured into the Southeast with torrential rains and an occasional lightning strike. I just could not believe the timing. Area teachers emailing me all day long for the forecasts could not believe the timing either.
Here we are in June. Meteorological summer begins June 1st and runs through August 31st. Officially, summer begins Thursday, June 21st at 6:07 am.  June 1st is also the beginning of hurricane season. There are many predictions that we will have an above average number of named storms this year. There are also some who believe El Nino, along with an increased area of Sahara dust coming off the coast of Africa, may inhibit hurricane formation in the Atlantic. We really don’t have to worry much this month about Atlantic hurricanes. This time of year, the Gulf of Mexico is the breeding ground for tropical systems. All area lakes are in great shape, thanks to our late spring rains.

My concern is that with the so much tropical air in place to early in the summer, will we see a potential major flood event where lake levels cannot be drawn down quickly enough prior to a storm?  Through much of late May it has felt like July. Moisture coming from deep in the tropics seems to be relentless, much more so than I have seen in a number of years. It is concerning, to say the least. My hope is that El Nino will kick in early and we see the wind shear associated with this Eastern Pacific ocean cooling take its toll on developing storms. Time will tell, as it always does.
If you are wondering about the names of the storms for the 2018 season, here they are: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William.

Let’s hope Alberto does give us an encore performance of what happened back in 1994! That kind of flooding was horrific and it was only a tropical storm!

Glenn Burns is chief meteorologist for WSB-TV in Atlanta.


May 2018 column

Don't let recent rains fool you 

In March, colder than average temperatures prevailed across north Georgia, as they did in April.  What will May and the rest of the summer be like? According to the Climate Prediction Center, north Georgia will likely see warmer than average temperatures.  Rainfall predictions have too many variables apparently, therefore there are equal chances of above or below average rainfall. After a dry April, I was hoping to see increased rainfall as we head into summer.  
Beginning this month and continuing into August, rainfall is usually in the form of scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Widespread rain, even dispersed across the area like we see in the winter, will be a rare event. Lake Lanier, like most of our area lakes, is in fairly good shape and can withstand some dry weather. Our lakes levels are not only affected by rainfall and run-off from that rain, they are also affected by the temperature.
With warmer than average temperatures likely, we will see more evaporation. You would be amazed how much water is evaporated by Lake Lanier in just one day! On a really hot summer day, the lake will evaporate between 50 million and 100 million gallons of water!  With continued hot and dry weather, you can see how quickly lake levels can drop with that kind of evaporation. That’s why I was hoping to see above average rainfall predictions.
The average rainfall for April is 3.35 inches. April is our driest month of the year. The average May rainfall is not much better with 3.66 inches. In June, we increase to a monthly average of 3.94 inches. Rainfall will ramp up in July, with an average of 5.28 inches. However, showers and storms will be hit or miss.
Also, a meteorologist I heard speak at the last American Meteorological Society conference last June in Austin, Texas make an astounding prediction. He explained he has come up with a formula to do extremely accurate long-range weather predictions. I am very skeptical. Here’s what he predicted. He said if there was a tropical weather system in the Gulf of Mexico on July 1st, shortly thereafter there would be a major hurricane in the Gulf. I have it on my calendar to watch.
In the meantime, I am dusting off the fishing poles and am looking forward to getting out on the lake for some of the best fishing of the year. I am sure we will have another brief shot of cooler temperatures this month. However, all in all, I love the weather in May. It’s most of the time not too hot … most of the time not too cool …. and the humidity is rarely oppressive. Enjoy the weather because the heat may be on this summer!

April 2018 column

Rethinking 'April showers' 

April in north Georgia. What stands out in north Georgia this month? Easter? The Dogwood trees in bloom? The pine pollen that covers everything in a film of yellow dust? For me, April is the driest month of the year. I know what you’re thinking. It’s spring and what about all the April showers? Based on the last 30 years of climatology, the average rainfall for the month is 3.36 inches, making it the driest month of the year.  If you are now wondering what the wettest month of the year is, you would have to look at July. We average 5.27 inches of rain in July.
If you are a golfer, then you know April means the Masters.  Augusta National is always a spectacle of color with the azalea’s and blooming trees. Even though April is the driest month of the year, there is a tendency to see stormy weather and even freezing cold temperatures, like last year. You may also remember April 3rd, of last year. Eight tornadoes hit north Georgia and caused widespread destruction. Then much of our peach crop was wiped out by the cold that followed.
What I am trying to point out is that even though April is the driest month, it is not necessarily the calmest month. We had supercell thunderstorms last month with three devastating tornadoes in metro Atlanta. It can and does happen in April too. We are still dealing with “weather wars” being waged in the atmosphere when cold air meets warm air. There is so much spin in the atmosphere in the spring from changing wind speeds to changing wind direction with height. I have seen just showers, without lightning, rotate and spin up small tornadoes. We all need to be weather aware, even during the driest month of the year.
I know we are all looking forward to the warmer temperatures this month. With the higher sun angle and more hours of daylight, our warming will surely continue.  However, I do see a pattern where we might see several more blasts of cold air. And don’t think it still can’t snow this time of year. Many of you may remember the six inches of snow that fell in our northern suburbs back in 1985. I am not saying we’re going to have a snowstorm this month but there have been years when some heavy April snows have occurred.  
You may remember the Climate Prediction Center Winter Weather Outlook I wrote about last fall.  With the cooler central Pacific Ocean temperatures firmly in place, (La Nina) the outlook called for our winter to be warm and dry.  Of course, as we all know, it turned out to be brutally cold with above average rainfall and two incredible snow storms. I was getting a little concerned through the early part of winter when it was so dry and then the heavens opened up and we’re in great shape. The lake is in beautiful shape and as we head into the driest month of the year, we can say, no worries!

March 2018 column

Recalling recent super storms 

On the night of March 14th, 2008, I was watching the radar.  There was a strong storm in Floyd County but that was about it. The storm continued moving to the southeast but showed no signs of weakening after 30 minutes.  
It was not your ordinary thunderstorm. It was a Supercell thunderstorm but there were no signs of any rotation just yet. In its 9 p.m. outlook, the Storm Prediction Center issued a slight risk of severe weather across portions of the southern United States from Oklahoma to Georgia, with a two percent risk area for tornadoes in north Georgia, including the Atlanta area. 
Around 9:20 I saw a little rotation on our radar and then a tornado warning was issued for Atlanta at 9:26 p.m. when the thunderstorm that caused the tornado was around five to six miles northwest of downtown area. No watches were in effect for the area due to the low probability and unusual isolated nature. Again, this was the only storm on radar at the time. The tornado moved to the southeast, which is also unusual, as most supercells generally move to the northeast along a cold front. As it continued move toward the downtown area, around 9:30 p.m., you could begin to see signs of rotation very well.
The NWS then issued a tornado warning. There was a lot going on in the city that night. The SEC basketball tournament at the Georgia Dome and the Hawks at Philips Arena. We had immediate reports.  A tornado was on the ground in the downtown area. It was causing widespread damage across downtown Atlanta, including to the CNN Center and to the Georgia Dome and the Omni Hotel, which was evacuated after many windows were blown out. The Westin Peachtree Plaza suffered major window damage. Centennial Olympic Park, SunTrust Plaza and historic Oakland Cemetery were also damaged.  
I can remember the video of all the gravestones that were blown over. One man was killed near downtown Atlanta and 30 others were injured. Two other deaths occurred on March 15 when larger round of severe weather and tornadoes ravaged the north Atlanta suburbs. In total, 45 tornadoes were confirmed over the 24-hour period from eastern Alabama to the Carolina coast, with most of the activity concentrated in the Metropolitan Atlanta area, the Central Savannah River Area and the Midlands of South Carolina.
In 2011, there was a “Super Outbreak of tornadoes. It was one of the costliest and deadliest in U.S. history. The hardest hit of our southern states were Alabama and Mississippi but it also produced destructive tornadoes in Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia, and affected many other areas throughout the Southern and Eastern United States. In Alabama alone, 238 tornado-related deaths were confirmed by the Storm Prediction Center and the state’s Emergency Management Agency. In total, 362 tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service. That was an astounding number.
What did the tornado outbreaks of 2008 and 2011 have in common? Both were La Nina years, like this year. Am I predicting more super outbreaks like those years?  There is no way to predict such events. All I am saying is that this would be a year when I would be extra weather-aware. As we have seen in 2008, it only takes a single storm to wreak havoc. What I will be watching for is to see if the February warm pattern continues this month. If it does, then we could have some trouble as strong cold fronts move into the Southeast and wage their “weather wars.”  The Climate Prediction Center thinks it will stay warm.

February 2018 column

It's called forecasting for a reason 

I hope all of you are surviving this winter. The Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook was for above average temperatures and below average precipitation. As you well know, it’s turning out to be one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record for north Georgia.
What has also been remarkable is that Atlanta has been consistently cooler than Anchorage, Alaska most of last month. When we had our second snow on January 16th and our temperature hovered in the mid 20s, Fairbanks was in the mid 30s! We have actually had more snow than Chicago this winter!  Yes, things are just a little out of whack.
Before our winter season began, broadcast meteorologists, national weather meteorologists, county emergency managers, GDOT officials, and school superintendents met at Georgia Tech to discuss the upcoming winter.  Meteorologically, we all saw the colder ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, signaling the developing La Nina.  Without going into a bunch of meteorological jargon, the bottom line was a warm and dry winter.  However, our NWS meteorologists did say that, from time to time, we could see some severe ice storms.  That is what we all prepared for and we happily went on our way.
An epic early December snow storm gave us pause. Then the temperatures got cold and stayed cold through January. This is not our typical La Nina weather, to say the least. So, what is going on? There is a feature over the north pole called the Polar Vortex. You might have seen media reports like “Godzilla Polar Vortex to attack the Northeast.” That’s not entirely true!   The polar vortex is a prevailing wind pattern that circles the Arctic, flowing from west to east all the way around the Earth. It normally keeps extremely cold air bottled up toward the North Pole. Sometimes however, the  Polar Vortex weakens, allowing the cold air to pour down across Canada into the U.S., all the way down into Georgia. In addition to bringing cold, the air mass can push the jet stream, a river of wind that flows from the Pacific Ocean across the U.S., much farther south as well. If we get even a small weather disturbance, bringing Gulf moisture, it can fall as heavy snow, which is what happened here in December.
Why does the vortex weaken?  Some climatologists believe it’s because more Arctic sea ice is melting during summer months. The more ice that melts, the more the Arctic Ocean warms. The ocean radiates much of that excess heat back to the atmosphere in winter, which disrupts the polar vortex. Data taken over the past decade indicate that when a lot of Arctic sea ice disappears in the summer, the vortex has a tendency to weaken during the following winter.  Although the extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic varies year to year, overall it has been disappearing more and more over the past decade. Climate change scientists are forecasting the sea ice to continue to vanish even more in the years ahead. That could mean more trouble for the polar vortex, and more frigid outbreaks here in Georgia.
We have a nice tool that shows us when the polar vortex is set to unleash arctic air. It’s called the Arctic Oscillation Index and has been performing quite well this winter. I can actually see when cold arctic air will move in as much as a week in advance. 
The one thing I don’t want to see this month is my heating bill from January! I bet it will look like a second mortgage. Hopefully the weather will settle down a bit this month and no more thrills … chills … and higher heating bills.
Now we begin to move into severe storm season. We will chat about what to expect next time.  Stay warm!

January 2018 column

Ah, the joys of forecasting snow in Georiga

We have one month behind us in the meteorological winter and two months to go. If the first month is any indication of what we can expect this La Nina winter, we are going to have our work cut out for us!
December’s snowstorm was without a doubt, one of the most challenging forecasts in my 36 years forecasting the weather for north Georgia. When I was looking at the various models a few days before that Friday the 8th snow, the majority showed modest snow amounts of one, maybe two inches.  However, there was one model that was showing 6-10 inches! I thought that was just ridiculous. I also know we don’t really know what is going to happen when forecasting snow in north Georgia until the night before or the day of, the event.  
The night before the National Weather Service issued a “Winter Weather Advisory” for up to one inch of snow. That is what we went with during the 11 p.m. newscast on December 7th. I said again, it might not be until the morning until we actually had a good handle on things. Sure enough, models began to indicate more than an inch of snow. It now looked like we could get two to three inches of snow, possibly isolated higher amounts. So, the NWS then issued a “Winter Storm Warning” for the western metro counties. The fun and games began that morning and the snow came down at such a rate that 2-4 inch accumulations were being observed in less than an hour. When it was all said and done, snowfall, mainly along and west of I-85, measured six to 13 inches! 
I remember the Blizzard of ’93 very well. I made a perfect forecast on that storm, basically using stone knives and bear skin rugs, compared to the technology we have today. That was the most snow I have ever seen fall in north Georgia. However, this month’s storm result at my house: nearly 13 inches. I knew it was more than 1993. Sure enough, our December 18th, 2017 shattered snowfall records in some areas. For Cobb County and Carroll County, the 12-13 inches was the most snow since the NWS began keeping snow records in 1928!  
So here we are in January. It’s usually the coldest month of the year and presents its fair share of winter weather surprises. I will throw this out there. The last 10 out of 15 years when we have had a December snow, it never snowed again for the entire winter.  However, it is not the snow I am concerned with this month. It’s ice.
A La Nina weather pattern is notorious for bringing us ice storms. La Nina winters have brought catastrophic ice storms where power can be out for a week or more. This is the month it will most likely happen, according to climatology. I am not forecasting an ice storm but I will certainly be keeping my eye out for even a minor chance. This would be something you need a lot of lead time on. I would want everyone well prepared for long duration event. I will do my best to keep you informed. Maybe, just maybe, it will be one of those 10 out of 15 years where we don’t get any more frozen precipitation after a December snow. Prepare for the worst and we’ll hope for the best.
Happy New Year to you and your families and I hope 2018 is a wonderful year for you.

December 2017 column

Forecast calls for La Nina making a visit this winter

It’s pretty hard to believe that another year has come and gone, but here we are in December! We have certainly had another “interesting” year of weather, capped off by that insane hurricane season. After a fairly warm and benign October, November held few surprises as above average temperatures continued with a fairly dry pattern. We did have that nice cool blast just in time for Thanksgiving.  I think it felt a little more festive this Thanksgiving than last.
From what I have seen, we should be looking at yet another pattern change this month. I am seeing above average temperatures returning. However, we are in a pattern where we could see cold air damming. La Niña will frequently bring a shallow layer of cold air into northeast Georgia with Hall County the “bullseye.” It makes temperature forecasting much more challenging. While Atlanta could see temps near 70 in the so-called “cold air wedge,” Gainesville may be in the 50s.
Anyone who is involved with Lake Lanier is also tuned in to rainfall. We are all aware of the lack of rainfall we have seen in October and November. It now appears La Niña will keep us in below average rainfall this month too. Even my longer-range models taking us into spring, keep us drier than average. 
During the late fall and winter, we always see the Corps of Engineers draw the lake level down. This year was no exception, despite all the predictions of a drier winter. This is very concerning since we rely on the winter rain to replenish the lake. Going from a dry winter into an expected drier than average spring could result in the lake level remaining very low.  Summer is always hit and miss with rainfall so we could be facing drought conditions by June. Nothing is etched in stone but these are the trends I am seeing and these are the trends we have seen with past La Niña events.
As we head into winter, which officially begins on December 21st, everyone always wants to know if I think we will see snow. There is always that chance but my bet this winter is for ice. As I have explained, we’re in a La Niña, favorable for the cold air wedge. With a classic wedge, warm moist air is coming in with with southwest winds, over the top of the shallow cold air coming in with northeast winds. This gives us, more often than not, drizzle and mist. If the ground, or bridges and overpasses, are below 32 degrees, we will have ice. Downed trees and power lines will be the rule. You might want to prepare now and stock up on supplies, as power outages might last for days. 
We’ll keep an eye on the weather and I will have an update on any changes in our winter weather outlook next month.

November 2017 column


Winter prediction: Warmer and drier than normal

After the record high temperatures last month and the air that came from the tropical rainforests of Central America, courtesy of Hurricane Nate, I bet you thought we would never see any cool weather last month. We did of course and now everyone is asking what the weather will be like this winter. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) issued its winter weather outlook and it looks like we’re going to see a very typical La Nina pattern. We are currently in a La Nina Watch.  In the simplest of explanations, La Nina is part of a cyclical pattern of ocean warming (El Nino) and ocean cooling (La Nina) in the eastern or central equatorial Pacific Ocean. If you’re asking what ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean has to do with our winter weather, the answer is: A lot! This pocket of cooler sea-surface temperatures off the west coast of South America along the equator disrupts global wind patterns. It forces the polar branch of the jet stream to stay farther north.  This will mean the southern states will generally warmer and drier than average. That being said, we will still see blasts of cold arctic air plunge into the Southeast from time to time. However, the overall average temperatures will be much warmer for us.
If you are wondering about snow, I think we should all be more concerned about ice. I have been forecasting the weather for north Georgia for the better part of 36 years. I have seen a thing or two. It has been my experience that we will see many more “Wedge” type weather events with a La Nina. The technical name for the wedge is CAD or Cold Air Damming. When an arctic high pressure systems breaks loose and drive across Canada into the northeast part of the country, the clock-wise wind circulation around the high drives a shallow layer of cold air south. The air is cold and dense and behaves much like water. The Appalachian Mountains act like a dam, funneling the shallow layer of cold air into north Georgia. The air is frequently coldest around Hall County. 
In a typical CAD event, winds above ground are coming in from the southwest at about 3,000 to 5,000 feet. This southwest wind is transporting moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico. The result is drizzle or light rain falling into the shallow layer of cold dry air. As the precipitation falls, some will evaporate. As we all know, evaporation is a cooling process. So the rain falling will make the surface air even colder. Now the problems will begin. We have the beginning of an ice storm. Accumulating ice will cause extremely hazardous driving, especially on bridges, overpasses, and elevated roads, not to mention massive power outages from the ice accumulating on power lines. Each La Nina is different but they all pretty much have the same basic characteristics. The good news is, we have the technology and experience to very reliably predict when they will occur, many days in advance.  
So, fasten your seatbelts, be ready for a warmer and drier winter and be on guard for those times we ice and cold arrive in northeast Georgia.

October 2017 column

My concern for hurricanes came true last month

I hope you read my column from last month. Now you know why I was so concerned about the ramping up of hurricanes in September. What an incredible month of storms! People have been asking me if it’s global warming making the storms more powerful. My answer has been 100 percent, “No.” In the Atlantic last month we had no wind shear from El Nino. We had no Sahara dust. We had very warm ocean temperatures but nothing extraordinary. When the tropical waves rolled off the west coast of Africa, they entered a perfect environment to become massive and dangerous hurricanes.

Hurricane Harvey was pushed farther west into the Gulf of Mexico. It was not an overly impressive hurricane but when we saw the environment over Texas, we began to worry. There were two massive high pressure areas over the country. One was in the West and the other in the East. Harvey was going to move in between them. We knew it was going to stall with nowhere to go. Indeed it did and more than 48 inches of rain caused flooding to 20 percent of the Houston metro area. Ten percent of the buildings and homes in the Houston metro had water damage. Gas prices still remain high but they are no doubt artificially inflated now.
After Harvey, along came Irma.  Another Atlantic crossing from West Africa into ideal conditions brought Irma to a strength rarely seen. The European computer models, the most reliable, was bringing the storm through the Caribbean, hitting just about every island possible. We knew it would eventually turn north but we did not know exactly when or where. That turn prediction was extremely important in determining the impacts on our local weather. With each model run that came in the center was being pushed farther and farther west.  North Georgia would now be on the northeast quadrant, the most powerful side of the storm, as the center moved into Alabama.
As wind and rain began to increase here, trees began to fall.  Hundreds and hundreds of them crashing onto buildings and homes.  During the height of the storm most of us were seeing winds of 30-40 mph sustained. However, the gusts were in the 50 mph range.  The two strongest wind gusts were 64 mph at Hartsfield Jackson International Airport and a 55 mph gust in Habersham County. Many people were without power for almost a week.
Then, along came Maria.  Winds sustained at 175 mph with gusts to 215 mph. It looked like a buzz saw cruising into the Caribbean. Puerto Rico took the brunt of the storm, knocking out power to the entire island of more than 3.5 million. Many nearby islands had catastrophic damage and nine people lost their lives.  This was the worst hurricane season since 2005.
We are not out of the woods just yet. Hurricane formation is now shifting from the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico. You may remember hurricane Opal in 1995. That was a storm that really intensified in the Gulf of Mexico. As we head into October, maybe my favorite month of the year, the leaves will be changing and hopefully the temperatures will be getting a little cooler. Our long-range outlooks continue to hint at warmer than average temperatures through November.

September 2017 column

Atlantic waters are heating up

Can you believe it’s already September? I am already seeing pumpkin lanterns and other Halloween fare at local stores.  While many are thinking about cooler temperatures and fall color, my attention is still on the ocean.  The 15th of September is the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
We have seen an increase in tropical activity in recent weeks.  The Atlantic is boiling and sea-surface temperatures are at their maximum. The ACE index, Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, is also ramping up. The atmosphere is primed in the tropics. The point of origin for tropical storm and hurricane formation this time of year shifts to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Waves of thunderstorms that form over Africa are swept out to sea. If conditions are just right, a tropical depression will form, the first stage in hurricane development. 
This is also the time of year for the “big ones.” Major hurricanes (Cat 3 and stronger) will form this time of year because of the heat, the hot ocean temperatures, and because they have a lot of ocean to cross with very little friction from land to hinder them. I always get a little nervous when I see the projected paths that bring them into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Katrina was one such storm that really gained a lot of strength after festering for a few days in the near 90 degree water temperatures.

From experience, I get just as worried with weak, slow-moving tropical storms. You may remember a fairly weak tropical storm named Alberto in 1994. As it turned out, Alberto was the costliest storm of the 1994 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was the first named storm of the season. It hit Florida across the Southeast United States in July, causing a massive flooding disaster while stalling over Georgia and Alabama. Alberto caused $1 billion in damage, in 1994 dollars, and 30 deaths.  I have never ever seen flooding like that before or since. I remember our reporters showing caskets flowing down the some of the overflowing rivers in South Georgia.  
I just wanted to point out that is does not have to be a Katrina-like storm to cause massive damage. A slow-moving or stalled tropical system can cause the same type of devastation. In addition, we would also see many tornadoes with a land-falling tropical system in north Georgia. I will be glad when this season comes to an end.  NOAA keeps changing its forecast and the numbers of expected storms keeps increasing. We will keep you posted, as we always do. 
Some dates to remember this month: Fall officially begins on Friday, Sept. 22. The arrival of autumn is heralded by a Harvest Moon. The term “Harvest Moon” refers to the full moon that falls nearest to the autumnal equinox.  So, the Harvest Moon will be on Oct. 5.


August 2017 column

Great solar exlipse is finally here!

I have been waiting for August 2017 for a great many years. Ever since I broadcast the annular eclipse in 1984, I could not wait to see the total solar eclipse that will occur this August 21st.
Back then, here in Atlanta, 99.7 percent of the sun’s surface was covered. I remember broadcasting outside the WSB studios in midtown and I watched the street lights come on as skies began to darken some 20 minutes after noon. It was perfect timing as it happened during the noon news. I had a thermometer outside and actually saw the temperature drop five degrees.  The city was bathed in an eerie twilight. As I looked at the shadow cast by the leaves of the elm tree near the back patio of WSB, I saw what looked like little crescent moons, hundreds of them cast on the patio. It got as dark as the sky would in a massive thunderstorm. The darkness was over just about as quickly as it began. This was not a TOTAL solar eclipse. It was ANNULAR. The sun was never totally blocked from the sun.  I would have to wait until 2017. It seemed like an eternity but here we are.
So what can you expect to see?  If you stay around the lake or Atlanta, you can expect to see about the same thing we saw back in 1992. About 97 percent of the sun will be obscured by the moon. However, if you head just a little north, you will be in the path of totality. I assure you, it will be worth the drive. So where should you go? Rabun County in the northeast Georgia mountains is in the direct path of totality. It will begin just after 2:30 p.m. and last about two and a half minutes. However, you might want to consider another destination.  Climatology shows that 70 percent of the time skies are cloudy with storms at that time of day on August 21st. It is possible that we could have clear skies there, but I am not taking that chance. I am going to Charleston where the afternoon seabreeze will scour out the clouds from the coast. You can go on the Sky and Telescope web page and see the exact path. Personally I would not choose the mountains of North Georgia or the mountains of North Carolina.
So what is it going to be like in full totality? Nothing short of amazing. 
IMPORTANT SAFETY TIP: You will need your dark safety glasses to look at the approaching and departing eclipse. If you don’t use the glasses the radiation from the sun will literally cook your retinas! The first thing you will see is black sky heading at you from the west. The shadow of the moon will be traveling at you at better that Mach 2! It will first touch Georgia at 2:34 p.m. EDT and will depart the state at 2:40 p.m. EDT. For two minutes and 35 seconds, if you are in the center line, you may look at the total eclipse without safety glasses. You will not believe your eyes. It will be almost as dark as night. You will likely see “Bailey’s Beads.” I have only see pictures but I have heard from friends it is indescribable. As the moon “grazes” by the Sun during a solar eclipse, the rugged lunar limb topography allows beads of sunlight to shine through in some places, and not in others. Sunlight will be blasting through the mountains and canyons of the moon creating a halo around it that looks like shimmering diamonds. You will be able to see stars and planets like Venus. The moon will continue moving and the eclipse will gradually wind down.
The eclipse will begin in Oregon and then traverse the United States, departing across the Atlantic, a few miles north of Charleston, S.C. It is going to be worth packing up the car and driving a couple of hours north or northeast. Or, you could wait around for the next one … in 2024

July 2017 column

Be lightning aware this summer

It was certainly great to see above average rainfall last month.  Even though our Lake Lanier basin is relatively small, persistent, almost daily rainfall, has kept the lake levels from dropping too much this summer. I expect above average rainfall to continue during July with above average temperatures.
As we all know, July is the hottest month of the year. While it may be hot on the ground, it may not be the case well above ground.  I frequently see temperatures this time of year at the 15,000 foot level in the 5 to 15 degree range.  When temperatures get that cold with elevation that quickly, the atmosphere becomes very unstable.  Monster summer storms quickly evolve in this type of environment, leading to power straight line winds and large hail. While wind and hail are certainly formidable threats to your safety, it is the lightning in summer storms that proves time and time again, to be the most threatening.
Georgia Tech has been doing some amazing research on lightning and has now developed the Georgia Lightning Mapping Array.  Lightning and its behavior can now be tracked and portrayed in three dimensions and in near real time.  This lets us as meteorologists, correlate storm structure with lightning.
You might be amazed to know that a lightning bolt is about as big around as a piece of chalk. It looks much larger because it is so very hot, about 50,000 degrees! About 70 percent of all lightning strikes occur over land. However, only 25 percent of all lightning flashes are from cloud to ground. The rest are intra-cloud or cloud to cloud.  There are also two types of lightning. The most common is the negative lightning bolt that delivers an electric current of about 30,000 amps. Then we have the positive lightning strike. This is less common but mostly responsible for all the lightning fires we have every summer in north Georgia. What we are dealing with is an electrical charge of 300,000 amps! About 5 percent of all lightning is positive.
A negative lightning strike originates from the base of a thunderstorm. A positive strike originates from the top of the anvil-shaped cloud of a thunderstorm and can travel as many as 10 miles from the parent storm. Many times a positive strike will occur in areas experiencing clear skies or only slightly cloudy. This is called a bolt from the blue and can contain a billion volts of electricity! As a result of their great power and lack of warning, you can imagine why positive lightning is so dangerous. 
Objects struck by lightning experience heat and magnetic forces of great magnitude. The heat created by lightning currents traveling through a tree may vaporize its sap, causing a steam explosion that bursts the trunk. Lightning will also leap from a tree to your house.  Lightning also serves an important role in the nitrogen cycle by oxidizing nitrogen in the air into nitrates which are deposited by rain and can fertilize the growth of plants. It makes natural fertilizer.  That’s why a few days after a severe lightning storm, your lawn may look really green.
The bottom line is … be careful! Lightning is the most formidable aspect of summer storms. Be back to the dock before everyone else races back at the same time.  Use our weather app to track storms.

Our WSB-TV app also has a great lightning warning system. Be weather aware and be safe this summer. 

June 2017 column

June is a special month for me

June is one of my absolute favorite months of the year. It’s the official beginning of summer, that time of year when everyone stops complaining about the cold and begin to complain about the heat!  I am not trying to be humorous.  OK, maybe a little but it’s true! 
Summer officially begins at 24 minutes past midnight on Wednesday, June 21st. Do you remember the first day of summer last year and what happened?  2016 was the first time in nearly 70 years that a full moon and the Northern Hemisphere’s summer solstice occur on the same day. The 2016 summer solstice’s full moon rose just as the Sun set. We won’t see that again this time around but it will of course, be the longest day of the year.  
We have certainly seen some good rainfall this past spring, however the lake is still way down below full summer pool. For the next 90 days, we will see a lot of evaporation. I bet you have no idea how much water will evaporate from the lake on a single day of sunshine and 90 degree heat. How about more than 100 million gallons! If we get an extended period of dry weather, like we usually do in June, that could really add up.  
The 90 day outlook, issued by the Climate Prediction Center, gives us a high probability of warmer than average temperatures this summer. Rainfall however, remains questionable. There are too many variables, like the developing El Nino, Sahara dust coming across the Atlantic, and our own climate cycles to make a prediction. The CPC has given us a 50/50 shot of above or below average rainfall this summer. As for me, I am sticking with a “persistence” forecast. I believe we will see above average to near average rainfall. I hope enough to compensate for the evaporation with the warmer than average temperatures.  
One of the most wonderful things I have come to enjoy is being out on the lake at night and watching the June full moon rise.  It’s usually great night fishing on the full moon. At least it has been for me. This month’s full moon occurs less than one day after reaching lunar apogee, the moon’s farthest point in its monthly orbit. The moon will be in full phase on June 9. You might notice a small yellow star near the moon that night. That would be the planet Saturn. That is not however, what will make this particular full moon special. It will be the farthest and smallest full moon of the year. Some people call it the “Mini Moon.” No matter what you call it, enjoy the beginning of summer. 
June is a special month, for sure! 


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